Global semiconductor demand is draining tin inventories at a record pace, with no meaningful new hard-rock supply expected before the first half of 2029. Global semiconductor sales reached USD 159.7 billion in August 2026, up 144.3% year-over-year and 8% from July, pushing year-to-date sales above USD 1 trillion for the first time. LME three-month tin traded at USD 54,184 per tonne, up 48% over 12 months but below its USD 56,816 record, according to Crux Investor.

Solder accounts for more than half of global tin consumption, compared with about 11% for tinplate packaging, closely linking semiconductor growth to tin demand. AI servers require up to 5 tonnes of tin versus roughly 500 kg for conventional servers, and each gigawatt of AI data-center capacity consumes 1,200–1,500 tonnes of tin — more than three times the amount used by conventional data centers. Combined London Metal Exchange and Shanghai Futures Exchange tin inventories fell 42% from a February 2026 peak of 22,600 tonnes to 13,100 tonnes, sharply reducing the buffer against supply disruptions.

Global tin mine production fell to an estimated 290,000 tonnes in 2025 from 294,000 tonnes in 2024 and 305,000 tonnes in 2023, with Myanmar’s output dropping to 12,000 tonnes from 20,000 tonnes due to mining restrictions in Wa State and the DRC producing 27,000 tonnes, leaving about 13% of global mine supply exposed to disruptions in conflict-affected countries. With no currently financed hard-rock project targeting production before 2029, the tightness is expected to persist well beyond the near term.