Tin is among the base metals projected to reach record annual highs in 2026, according to the World Bank’s April 2026 Commodity Markets Outlook. The World Bank’s metals and minerals price index jumped about 20% since the start of the year, reaching a record monthly nominal high in May, and the base metal index is forecast to rise 17% in 2026 — well above the less than 1% gain expected in January — before declining 7% in 2027 as supply conditions gradually normalize.

Aluminum, copper and tin prices are all expected to hit record annual highs in 2026, each rising by about 20%, supported by resilient demand and persistent supply constraints. Nickel prices are forecast to increase 12% and zinc about 5%, while lead is expected to decline slightly; iron ore stands out as the exception, falling below its 2020 level in 2026–27 on ample supply. Tin supply faces particular headwinds from regulatory and operational challenges in major producing countries and limited new mining capacity, even as demand is underpinned by soldering and electronics.

The surge is driven by supply disruptions linked to the conflict in the Middle East, operational setbacks and policy-driven output limits in major producing countries, colliding with resilient demand from clean-energy technologies, EV production, defense-related manufacturing and rapidly expanding AI-related data centers. Risks to the outlook are tilted to the upside: fresh production disruptions, new trade restrictions or stronger-than-expected data-center demand could push prices above baseline, while weaker-than-expected global growth, especially in China, which accounts for about half of base-metal consumption, remains the main downside risk.