The International Tin Association (ITA) forecasts that global tin demand will increase by 22% between 2026 and 2035, while refined tin supply is projected to grow by just 16%, highlighting the need for substantial new mine supply to meet future demand, according to remarks made at the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Forum hosted by the CNIA in London on 20 October 2026. ITA CEO Helen Prins joined a panel on “China and the Global Metals Market: Demand, Supply and Resources” alongside representatives of the London Metal Exchange, the copper, lead-zinc and nickel international study groups, and GF Futures.

The demand-supply gap is widening across the decade. The LME’s EV metals brief similarly notes ITA projections that global tin demand will grow from 400 kilotonnes in 2025 to over 500 kilotonnes by 2030, driven by electrification and digitalisation, with a 13,000-tonne supply deficit forecast by 2030 without new mining investment. The divergence underscores how the current price strength — with LME three-month tin holding near USD 50,000/tonne — is grounded in structural supply strain rather than speculation, as artisanal delays in Myanmar, falling head grades in China and conflict-related disruptions continue to constrain refined output.

Prins stressed that recognising tin’s growing strategic importance must translate into tangible investment in future production, supported by capital, collaboration and a shared industry commitment, and emphasized the value of security, resilience and responsible sourcing. With security moving up the agenda, governments and companies are examining where supply comes from, diversification and resilience. The challenge lies not in any single risk but in how multiple risks — geopolitics, resource security, energy, regulation, currency fluctuations and technological change, alongside ESG considerations and permitting requirements — interact and amplify one another.